Esticasting - we all know the future!

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esticasting - estimating, forecasting and chance

A Fun way to predict the Future

November 2012 - US Elections : Nate Silver was not alone!
In the past week, a statistician called Nate Silver has been making headlines, for having accurately predicted the outcome of the USA Elections in every state but one, when most of the official polls were saying the race was too tight to call.

What is less known is that also predicted the outcome, and with astonishing accuracy. Our forecasts were made in early September and October, long before Nate's predictions were made. In fact, the September forecasts were even better than the October ones:
September predictions:  Actual  Average  Best  
Obama Electoral Colleges:  332324335
Romney Electoral Colleges:  206209203
"Red" (Republican) States :  242423
October predictions:  Actual  Average  Best  
Obama Electoral Colleges:  332298335
Obama winning states:  262926
Obama popular vote :  51%52%51%

While Nate's models required higher mathematics and 'big data' computations, we just received the opinions of a handful of people scattered across Europe (and one American), with no special expertise in punditry. More details on the Results pages....

... and when you've done that, you can make your contribution to Collective Intelligence, by taking part in the current Esticasting Challenge survey.

This site is part of a statistical experiment, to see how good we are at predicting future events.
It consists of a short survey where visitors are invited to give their best guesses in different types of situation:
  -  Estimation of a known quantity (e.g. the number of jelly beans in a jar)
  -  Forecasting of a future value (e.g. stock market indexes or currency exchange rates)
  -  Chance prediction of a random event (e.g. the numbers in a lottery draw)
Read about us for more information on the ideas behind the experiment.

The survey is intended to be fun, and is open to anyone to participate - so feel free to share the site with your friends and colleagues. Each survey is only open for a limited period of time, but new surveys appear regularly, so check back often.

So go ahead and have a go - it's free, it's fun, and who knows, you may find yourself on the esticasters leader board sooner than you think. If you register a member, you will even get a personalised results report, showing how well you did compared to the other esticasters.

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